MARKETING FUNDAMENTALS - 2023 doesn't change things, neither did 2022, 2021...
Allegedly we are changing, AI is the end of our jobs & the economy is killing consumerism. But be honest with yourself about your own previous trend 'reactions' - I'd bet not much has changed at all!
When I started Front of Mind, it was - as I wrote in my first ever post - for a good reason : An industry with lots of how-to’s, evangelisms, channel biases and self-serving noise. Amidst this, I am always keen to (or at least aim to) provide a little common sense that perhaps every small business or marketer can benefit from.
By common sense, I mean tried and tested fundamental marketing principles, truths and even laws that can/should be applied to your work. If you are a newer subscriber, check out some of my archive to see the theme, if you are a long time subscriber I can only apologise if there is a sense of repetition. But isn’t that kind of the point? Also, don’t certain reassurances afford us some optimism amongst the always-on FOMO creation of the new and shiny?
You see - there are things that are evergreen, are perennial and are sure as the sky is (mainly) blue and the grass green. These should underpin everything despite the heavy footprints of new trends trying to stamp on this grass that we find that, despite any short term light, watering or attention always grows back.
This is of course not to say that things don’t change. Of course they do. Society progresses and with it the tools and technology, but as I wrote last month, people do not really change. BUT - every year there is always something that, the media and hyperbole will have you believe, will change the very fabric of human behaviour. This I doubt.
MASSIVE CHANGES? A recent timeline of ‘this changes everything…’
Let’s take a trip back down a recent memory lane :
Starting with what we are enduring right now. 2023 - AI. Chat GPT. MidJourney. All the others. I cannot go longer than probably 2 hours on any working day (and arguably infesting my evening and weekend scrolls) without reading a post, an email or a conference agenda warning me that somehow how AI is going the change everything in the marketing and advertising industry. We have experts (their LinkedIn headline will tell you this, like it did when they were metaverse experts last year). Texts and pictures on demand - an advertiser’s campaign variants dream right? Now of course it will evolve things. It already has. AI’s progress is a gradual shift over time that is both progressive and insidious dependent on viewpoint. But from what I can gather, the applications of which I have seen are used for shortcuts, for efficiency, for replication and to utilise machine learning for bidding algorithms. These are tools, these are tactics. A client told me only this week that their SEO person wants to use ChatGPT to do their multiple product pages. Jarring but makes sense to a degree (but ignorance is bliss right?). Efficiency for repetition. Product pages say. Even I would do that. I will also add that, beyond these techniques, AI has some tremendous use cases. But the human eyes, the QAs, the alignment and sense checking, the softer human sides of not spitting out the same glorified search engine word bile is going to be key. The strategic compass and direction of travel. AI used well is a powerful tool or tactic to embrace and not ignore, but it does not change principles of how humans respond, and again the tail should not wag the dog, as no doubt you will see from following recent years’ trends, the hype-cycle will die down, or plateau at worst; it is not going anywhere but as the use cases become solidified, the nonsensical use cases will hopefully cease. There is also the cost of living crisis I will mention briefly, but won’t put too much in that as it’s a cyclical event. We know all about boom and bust, credit crunches and recessions. Things vary by percentage points, but things rarely affect permanent change.
2022 - The Metaverse. Particularly NFTs (from late ‘21). Web 3.0. This is the first of the ‘historical’ year trends. Historical being the word. Note, 2023 ‘AI guys’ were 2022’s ‘Metaverse experts’. The fact that everyone’s favourite tech-bro Mark Zuckerburg himself gave up on the metaverse last month for AI speaks volumes. Even the most fantastical and experiential of brands, Disney, shed thousands of jobs as part of their ditching of the Metaverse. The numbers and adoption simply aren’t there. That is because it isn’t really a thing that exists. There are elements that a marketing planner can get their teeth into absolutely; Augmented reality, Gaming, VR worlds and immersive experiences. All for it; the planner in me sees channels and media types as a toolbox, you may use the right thing for the right plan. Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs) too, pieces of digital art ‘out there’ but for the right brand (even then per #2 they have tailed and are steady. But this ethereal conglomerate ‘Metaverse’ of online moments is a word that pervaded slides globally only for them to decline, and to plateau. Again, the point is, things aren’t totally massive then die, they just return to a low mean, like AI may. Also, that may be because there is a product and sector adoption/dependency on so many of these trends. Luxury fashion and brands like Nike I get it, but these marketing ‘experts’ pitching to SMEs and companies that do home improvements like fitting blinds, that they should have a metaverse strategy. Seriously, I heard this once in person. Yes, I did.
2021 - Blockchain (& its Crypto). Now, I am not a cryptocurrency expert nor investor, but like so many of these virtual currencies they have boomed and bust; their are those who have made a success out of it and I am not one to judge. But again Crypto as a payment method for commerce? Time will tell. But that isn’t really marketing related. The big industry issue here is with Blockchain, the globally distributed ledger of servers upon which cryptocurrencies sit, and that basically spreads things out and makes things secure (as techy as I’ll get!). But it was going to be the way all programmatic advertising was going to be traded apparently when I was scrolling my Twitter feed 3 years ago. A few tried; it hasn’t happened. Again, it is good innovation that after the spike of excitement regresses to the norm, but retrospect shows it did not change a thing for us marketers.
2020 - COVID Pandemic. It was going to change everything forever remember. The force majeure of the global pandemic and associated lockdowns was to change consumer habits indefinitely, not to mention destroy all offices and city centres. Despite its seismic effect of the world (and of course thoughts go out to those or their loved ones who suffered) to zoom out and look over time, did it change things really? There are no doubt some social, mental and physical effects that are lagging and would not wish diminish, but looking back in retrospect it was clear that some things were pertinent and temporary. Video conference and eCommerce site share prices, Increased Media CPMs, office furniture sales and musical instrument purchases, but the standard return to the trend line can be seen everywhere. Outdoor Advertising resumed. Of course, the big fundamental advertising tenet was that Share of Voice and ‘keeping the campaign on’ helped, and have come out the pandemic stronger. By keeping the ads going, they inevitably gained greater share of voice, as competitors pulled back their spend. The winner held their nerve, leant into the fundamentals, and they are doing OK.
2019 - Honestly, I can’t think now but probably something so memorable I cannot recall it for this - so yes the point made, these things come and go.
2018-1999 - Probably the year of Mobile. It was always the year of mobile. This is my favourite by the way for the purpose of this post as it sums it up; amongst marketing circles it is the gag, the irony, the antidote to the outrageous predictions. All along, whilst it was about to pop, it was a vehicle of communication doing its thing, the repository (Place) for apps (Product) and social ads (Promotion).
You get the idea.
Trends are that Trends, but they too are TOOLS
The aforementioned, from an NFT to a distributed server, are innovated elements of our ever-connecting world. They get well funded, delivered with some use cases, are extremely well promoted, then before you know it the commercial FOMO kicks in as executives the world over pressure their marketing teams to look at how to implement them. They want a strategy. From my own observed experience, and by reviewing that ebb and flow trending timeline, you can see that they are tools. None are useless, and when used in the right way, they are an enabler of a given output, if appropriate of course. But they will always be everything before they become something. Of all of them, the current trend of AI feels like the one with the sustainable far-reaching effects, it is a technological shift change like the World Wide Web was, but even then, to reiterate we are still finding our way and the use cases. It is without doubt the doer not the thinker. It is another tool in the marketing toolkit, and not the toolbox itself.
The ‘Front of Mind’ Final Thought
It is one of optimism. A warm marketing fundamental blanket to hide away under. We are living in exciting times of course with changes and innovation always happening. However, like I always try to convey in these letters, from 4p frameworks to ancient philosophers, we can learn from this oh so cosy past of human nature. Of emerging trends regressing to a norm. Of disasters coming to an end. Of everything then nothing. Of storms in teacups. Over time, these things should be seen as extra tools, to deliver products, solutions and maybe even the promotional advertising/copy side, but at the end of it all, just think what are we trying to do here? Who reviews the product? Who sees the ad? Humans. Emotional decision making humans. Last time I checked, they are not going anywhere, and I for one and good with that.
SA
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